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Interest Rates and Inventory Constrict Sales but Prices Remain Resilient

By MNR News posted 10-16-2023 10:06 AM

  
(Oct. 16, 2023) – According to new data from Minnesota Realtors®, sales continued to soften in September, but home prices showed their largest year-over-year gain in over 12 months.

Market Activity
During the month of September, sellers listed 5.5% fewer homes than last year, which led to 2.9% fewer homes for sale across the state, further limiting buyer options. Many sellers who would ordinarily list homes—albeit fewer sellers compared to the spring and summer markets—are staying put due to locking in a sub 4% rate. High mortgage rates on higher home prices is a double punch for buyers, and they’re feeling the pinch at a time when their cost of living has increased. More so than prices, the budget footprint of the monthly mortgage payment is top-of-mind for many home buyers and sellers; that’s one reason why closed sales were down 16.7% during the month. And yet prices, market times, and negotiations still mostly favor sellers.

The median home price rose 3.0%, the second strongest growth rate since February of this year. Homes sold in 32 days, 3.0% slower than last September and the only decline so far this year. And sellers are still getting 98.5% of their list price, up from last year. One of the more puzzling pieces of today’s market is how sales can slow as they have and yet prices remain firm,” said Emily Green, President of Minnesota Realtors®. “While a few parts of the state and metro have seen sales softening, the fact that both buyer and seller activity have declined in tandem has kept the balance of the market fairly tight.” In other words, since both supply and demand have declined, the balance between them hasn’t changed as much as some real estate stakeholders expected. Some were expecting an increase in supply combined with a decrease in demand to result in price declines, which the data hasn’t shown. 

Regional Dynamics
Market activity always varies across areas, price points, and property types. The Alexandria, Detroit Lakes, and Willmar regions saw gains in pending sales, though prices rose the most in the Duluth/North Shore region as well as the Mankato, Bemidji, and Brainerd regions. The most balanced markets were Bemidji and Detroit Lakes, while the most undersupplied markets were St Cloud, the Twin Cities metro, and Rochester. Homes took the longest to sell in the Hibbing/Virginia and Mankato regions.  

Insights and Anecdotes 

Agents across the state report multiple offer situations are less common compared to the last few years but still occurring. Some properties are selling in a few days or even a few hours for well over asking price. But overall, buyers are being more selective and cautious when choosing which listings to view and make offers on. At just 2.6 months of supply, it’s still a seller’s market, just not to the same degree as over the last few years. Typically, 4-6 months of supply are needed to have a balanced, neutral market. 

Minnesota Economy
Home sales and prices sometimes fluctuate with the business or interest rate cycle, but long-term, steady job growth with well-paying jobs is a key ingredient to a healthy and sustainable housing market. The state’s unemployment rate is 3.1%, which is below the national average. Businesses are still having a hard time finding and keeping workers. Minnesota is fortunate to have a diverse economy spanning health care, finance and insurance, manufacturing, retail, professional services as well as arts and entertainment. Building a sufficient number of homes to house workers across the spectrum has proven difficult. A few challenges facing our state (as well as others) include tax competitiveness, regulatory reform, environmental concerns, and addressing an aging population. While inflation has cooled notably from its peak, the rising cost of living is impacting Minnesotans in every neighborhood and zip code throughout the state. 

Twin Cities Metro Overview
Metro home prices rose at a slower 2.2% pace. Sales declines were nearly identical at both the metro and state levels. Homes sold in 34 days in the metro versus 32 days statewide. There’s a shortage of homes—particularly affordable units—across the entire state. With 2.3 months of supply compared to 2.6, the metro market was a bit tighter than in the state as a whole. Inventory levels contracted more in the metro than in the state. While earnings are higher in the metro, so are home prices and mortgage payments. Whether a remote place off the North Shore, one-level townhome, downtown condo or suburban single-family home, a lake cabin, farmstead or one of many friendly small towns, Minnesota offers something for everyone.  

View full regional and county reports here. 

View statewide report here. 

All information is according to Minnesota Realtors® based on data from NorthstarMLS and other MN MLSs. Data is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. 

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