Blogs

Minnesota’s Housing Market: Summary of Q2 2023

By MNR News posted 07-24-2023 12:40 PM

  
Inflation Falls and Closed Sales Show Improvement as Mortgage Rates Close Out June Near 7%
The second quarter of 2023 brought ups and downs for prospective homebuyers and sellers across Minnesota. As expected, our spring selling season was slower than the red-hot housing market of the prior two years. Many industry leaders see this as a necessary market “reset” as opposed to a full-blown recession.

Closed sales posted double-digit decreases over the same period in 2022, with inventory finishing the quarter at 2.2 months supplya statistic that falls well short of balanced market conditions. 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged over 6.5% for the quarter, impacting affordability for buyers while also causing more sellers to stay home to avoid trading their lower rate for a significantly higher one.

This tight tug-of-war between buyer demand and seller reluctance continues to slow the pace of sales and deepen the inventory shortage issue, even though sales showed steady month over month improvement from April to June. Competition continued in some areas of the state, and inventory did inch up. Median home sales prices climbed over Q2 to reach $350,000 in June. Prices have likely peaked for the year and are expected to stabilize or gently dip heading into the fall, following seasonal trends. That said, if mortgage rates were to dip earlier than expected—down to or even below the 6% markthat could bring a flood of would-be buyers back to the market, which would likely cause home prices to increase further. 

Still, it remains difficult for many low- to middle-income buyers to find affordable homes in Minnesota, particularly in the Twin Cities metro. Housing affordability suffered slightly overall in Q2, which is to be expected as prices and mortgage rates climbed. 

However, there was a notable bright spot, and one that might signal a resurgent housing market next year. As the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, inflation fell, bringing needed relief to consumers. The national inflation rate finished June at 3%. Because of the rapid decline in inflation, many economists predict the Federal Reserve won’t raise its interest rates again in the near future. Decelerating inflation should improve consumer confidence, and most critically, ease the pressure on mortgage rates and revitalize closed sales in 2024.   

When mortgage rates fall, as predicted, that should prompt sellers to return to market and help ease inventory woes, though affordability may remain a thorn in the side for some buyers.  

Inflation statistics: U.S. Inflation Calculator 

Mortgage rates statistics: Freddie-Mac (30-Year Fixed) 

NAR’s Affordability Index Explained: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/affordability-index.asp  

0 comments
878 views