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Minnesota's Housing Market: Summary of Q3 2023

By MNR News posted 10-19-2023 10:00 AM

  
U.S. Economy remains resilient but affordability and home sales suffer as mortgage rates eclipse 7%
The third quarter of 2023 brought a few headaches to both buyers and sellers in the real estate sector. Inventory improved in some areas but remained well short of a balanced market overall. Affordability closed the quarter on an upswing, though it remains a top hurdle for housing. A hopeful trend for consumers nationwide is a decelerating inflation rate and a buoyant economy overall.

Despite the Federal Reserve foregoing another interest rate hike in mid-September—a decision praised by many expert economists within the housing industry—mortgage rates averaged above 7% throughout the quarter. In late September, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) average topped 7.5%, a 20-year high mark. Economists forecast that FRMs could climb to 8% before eventually falling in 2024.

Due to higher FRMs, increasing home prices, and the inventory crunchthe decline of housing affordability is a major plot point from Q3, both in Minnesota and across the country. Higher mortgage rates kept more sellers on the sidelines, unwilling to trade out of their current lower mortgage rates. On the other side of the fence, higher rates and home prices are straining prospective buyers who would otherwise be ready to purchase. Mortgage rates also played a significant role in the decline of builder confidence to close the quarter, as reported by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. 

Minnesota came in at a quarterly average of 91 on the Housing Affordability Indexwhich measures whether a typical household earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the prevailing rates. Anything below the mark of 100 is a sign of affordability issues for most buyers 

Typically, the late summer and early fall begin the quieter selling seasons in Minnesota, and data confirmed this cooling. Sales and median prices fell month over month in Q3. However, Realtors® reported multiple offers on some properties, and determined buyers were active across the state, though the pace was slower than earlier this spring. Buyers are still in the grips of a sellers market, facing the aforementioned low supply and affordability obstacles. However, it’s no cakewalk for sellers, who face limited options and similar affordability issues, should they choose to list their current home or buy another.  

NAR’s Lawrence Yun is confident we’re not in a housing bubble that’s going to burst. “There is not going to be a home price crash...When you have a housing shortage, home prices simply cannot decline in any measurable way, he said in a recent interview with CNN. NAR consumer research suggests that a 5.5% 30-year FRM may be the “magic number” that will spark the housing market next year. 

Inflation statistics: U.S. Inflation Calculator 

Mortgage rates statistics: Freddie-Mac (30-Year Fixed) 

NAR’s Affordability Index Explained: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/affordability-index.asp 
This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.  

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